Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Fantasy Football Mock Draft from NFL.com


Football season is right around the corner. For those of you who have to start thinking about their upcoming fantasy football draft, I give you some analysis taken from NFL.com's website. Let's just start getting an idea of who all the top scorers are, shall we? I don't agree with all of thesepicks and their placement, but for the most part, these are some of the top guys in the league that you should be targeting come draft day (barring any unforseen training camp injuries, of course!).

Round 1

Minnesota Vikings
1. Adrian Peterson
Running back Peterson's name will remain atop these mock drafts right through August. He scored an unimpressive 10 touchdowns last season, but he led the NFL with 1,760 rushing yards and still hasn't hit his ceiling in terms of fantasy value. Peterson is a talented and elusive runner with a tremendous offensive line ahead of him, so he should continue to thrive with a team that will lean on him a lot.

Chicago Bears
2. Matt Forte
Running back Forte was a huge draft value last season, breaking out for 1,715 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns. With Jay Cutler now under center for the Bears, Forte could see even more opportunities to score points for fantasy owners. Forte, who was selected ahead of Peterson in a recent expert league draft I participated in, is a surefire star in fantasyland. He's a solid choice in standard and PPR formats.

Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
Running back Jones-Drew's days of being underrated are over. He has averaged 1,314 yards from scrimmage and close to 13 touchdowns in three NFL seasons, and he'll now be the featured back after the release of Fred Taylor, who signed with the Patriots. Jones-Drew's stock rose even more after the NFL draft, as the Jaguars added OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton to what will be an improved front.

Atlanta Falcons
4. Michael Turner
Running back Turner is coming off a breakout season in which he rushed for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns as the centerpiece of the Falcons' offense. While he did finish with 376 carries, Turner is still young and fresh enough to handle another heavy workload next season and post solid numbers. The Burner, who will benefit from TE Tony Gonzalez's presence in the offense, will be a surefire top-five selection in most drafts.

Carolina Panthers
5. DeAngelo Williams
Running back Fantasy leaguers who think Williams will score 20 touchdowns again are bound to be disappointed, but he's still a solid bet for around 1,300 rushing yards and 12 to 15 scores. While I have seen him fall in some recent expert drafts, Williams remains a surefire first-round selection in a Carolina offense that will continue to lean on the run in 2009. However, Williams could come off the board later in PPR leagues.

Tennessee Titans
6. Chris Johnson
Running back Much like Forte, Johnson exploded onto the scene as a rookie and helped countless owners to a championship. He ended the season with 1,228 rushing yards and nine touchdowns despite seeing just 53 percent of the Titans' running back/fullback carries. Johnson is fast and elusive, and he's slated to see an even bigger role in Tennessee's offense in 2009. He will be selected ahead of Williams in most PPR leagues.

St. Louis Rams
7. Steven Jackson
Running back Despite missing four games last season, Jackson still finished with 40 catches, 1,421 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns in 2008. The Rams will use a West Coast offense under coordinator Pat Shurmur, so Jackson should be able to use his immense skills as a pass catcher. Behind what will be an improved line that added OT Jason Smith in the draft, Jackson should thrive if he can avoid injuries.

Arizona Cardinals
8. Larry Fitzgerald
Wide receiver The top wide receiver in fantasy football, Fitzgerald is almost certain to come off the board in the first or second round in drafts. He has been ultra-consistent and productive, and he's possibly the best player at his position in the game right now. With QB Kurt Warner coming back to Arizona after signing a two-year deal, Fitzgerald's value in fantasy circles will remain prominent. Let's just hope the Madden cover curse doesn't affect him in 2009.

San Francisco 49ers
9. Frank Gore
Running back Gore showed flashes of his impressive 2006 form last season, but injuries limited him to 14 games and hurt his value down the stretch. However, in what promises to be a run-based offense under new coordinator Jimmy Raye, Gore will remain prominent in the 49ers' plans. He's young (26) and doesn't share carries (rookie Glen Coffee is more of a potential handcuff than a committee back), which also is a positive.

Dallas Cowboys
10. Marion Barber
Running back Barber is a touchdown machine who would be ranked ahead of Gore if it weren't for the presence of Felix Jones and Tashard Choice in the Cowboys' backfield. Reports out of Dallas suggest that Barber could lose his starting role to Jones and be used as a "closer" -- a role he thrived in from 2006 to 2007 -- so the situation shouldn't be seen as serious detriment to his value. A versatile back, Barber remains a No. 1 option in all fantasy formats.

Houston Texans
11. Steve Slaton
Running back While his lack of size (5-foot-9, 203 pounds) was seen as a concern last season, Slaton disproved the critics as the top runner in Houston. He finished with 50 catches, 1,659 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns, so his value in 2009 will be immense. The Texans failed to add a short-yardage or goal-line back in free agency or the draft, so Slaton's role should remain prominent. He could go higher in PPR drafts.

San Diego Chargers
12. LaDainian Tomlinson
Running back Tomlinson recently turned 30 and appears to be on the downside of his career. However, he's still capable of putting up big numbers at times, and coach Norv Turner said this offseason that he wants to get Tomlinson around 320 carries. Tomlinson wasn't at all consistent in 2008, though, and could lose work to Darren Sproles. Tomlinson should be considered more of a low-end No. 1 fantasy back.


Round 2

Houston Texans
13. Andre Johnson
Wide receiver Johnson, who could be selected ahead of Fitzgerald in some drafts (especially for superstitious owners who fear the Madden curse), is coming off a career season with 115 receptions, an NFL-best 1,575 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He's a younger version of Terrell Owens and an absolute nightmare for opposing defensive backs. Barring injuries, Johnson will continue to produce for fantasy leaguers.

Detroit Lions
14. Calvin Johnson
Wide receiver Johnson played on a winless Detroit team and had to adapt to several different quarterbacks last season, but he still had 78 receptions for 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns. Whether it's Daunte Culpepper or No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford under center for the Lions next season, the man called "Megatron" is a virtual lock to come off the board in the second round in both standard leagues and those that rewards points for catches.

Washington Redskins
15. Clinton Portis
Running back Portis was the best running back in fantasy football for much of 2008, so it's hard to keep him out of the top 15 in next season's drafts. The Redskins didn't add a running back this offseason, so Portis will remain a featured player in an offense that will lean on the run. But be warned: His 342 carries and a multitude of injuries down the stretch could be a red flag that a physical breakdown is on the horizon.

New England Patriots
16. Randy Moss
Wide receiver Moss experienced statistical decreases across the board in 2008, as the Patriots' offense was far less explosive once QB Tom Brady was lost to a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the season opener. However, Brady's expected return next season has increased Moss' value in fantasy football. Moss won't duplicate his immense 2007 numbers, but he is without question an elite No. 1 fantasy wideout again.

Philadelphia Eagles
17. Brian Westbrook
Running back Westbrook will be 30 to start next season, and we've already started to see signs of wear and tear on his problematic knees. He's coming off an arthroscopic procedure, not to mention ankle surgery that could keep him out for part or all of training camp. That makes Westbrook even more of a risk, but one that's worth taking in the second round. If you do draft Westbrook, taking rookie LeSean McCoy later is imperative.

New Orleans Saints
18. Drew Brees
Quarterback Brees is coming off a monster season in which he threw for 5,069 yards and 34 touchdowns. He led all players on NFL.com with 363 fantasy points, and he's one of the few non-running backs who's worthy of first-round consideration in all standard leagues. Brees is consistent and reliable, and he will be the most coveted signal-caller in most fantasy drafts. He'll be one of the top picks in touchdown-based formats.

Carolina Panthers
19. Steve Smith
Wide receiver Smith, who was suspended for the first two games of last season, still finished with 78 receptions and 1,421 yards. Despite his lack of size, he's still a terror for opposing defensive backs and will remain prominent in Carolina's pass attack and the top option for QB Jake Delhomme. That makes Smith a solid No. 1 fantasy wideout and worth a second-round pick in standard and PPR formats.

New York Giants
20. Brandon Jacobs
Running back Jacobs produced career bests in rushing yards (1,089) and touchdowns (15) -- numbers good enough to put him in the top 12 among running backs on NFL.com last season. The Giants have lost Derrick Ward (free-agent contract with the Buccaneers), so Jacobs should be in line to see more carries next season. While his proneness to injuries is a concern, Jacobs is still well worth selecting in the second round.

New England Patriots
21. Tom Brady
Quarterback News on his recovery from knee surgery continues to be positive, and the trade of Matt Cassel to the Chiefs shows that the Patriots are confident Brady will be under center in Week 1. That deal moved Brady to second on NFL.com's quarterback rankings behind Brees and into the second round of this latest mock fantasy draft. Barring setbacks, Brady will be off the board in the second or third round.

Arizona Cardinals
22. Anquan Boldin
Wide receiver With the draft now in the rearview mirror and fewer trade rumors surrounding him, Boldin seems destined to remain in Arizona. That's good news in fantasyland. Boldin finished last season with 89 catches for 1,038 yards and 11 touchdowns, and he did it in just 12 games. While Boldin does tend to miss time because of various injuries, he's simply too talented to pass on in the second or third round in fantasy drafts.

Indianapolis Colts
23. Reggie Wayne
Wide receiver Wayne saw his reception, yardage and touchdowns totals fall last season, compared to his impressive numbers in 2007. Still, he did post 82 receptions and close to 1,150 yards as the top option for QB Peyton Manning in the Colts' passing attack. With Marvin Harrison now out of the mix in Indianapolis, Wayne should see a rise in both production and fantasy draft value. He's a surefire No. 1 fantasy wideout in most leagues.

Atlanta Falcons
24. Roddy White
Wide receiver In what was a bizarre 2008 fantasy season, White scored more points on NFL.com than Randy Moss and Steve Smith. With the emergence of QB Matt Ryan and in an offense that's well balanced with Turner in the backfield, the athletic White should continue to be a solid source of fantasy points. White, who also will benefit from TE Tony Gonzalez's presence, should be considered a No. 1 option at wide receiver.


Round 3

Miami Dolphins
25. Ronnie Brown
Running back Brown found himself in a backfield committee with Ricky Williams last season, but he still rushed for 916 yards and scored 10 touchdowns. Brown also has one full season under his belt after a reconstructive knee procedure heading into 2009, and I think he'll see a greater portion of the workload, even with Williams still in the backfield mix. Brown should be seen as a solid No. 2 fantasy runner.

Indianapolis Colts
26. Peyton Manning
Quarterback Manning is coming off what some would call a "down" season, throwing for 4,002 yards and 27 touchdowns. But he'll enter 2009 at 100 percent (he was coming off multiple knee surgeries to start 2008), and the talent around him will remain solid. Manning is a virtual guarantee to throw for 4,000-plus yards and 30 touchdowns, which makes him a lock to come off the board in the earlier rounds.

Green Bay Packers
27. Greg Jennings
Wide receiver Jennings might not be the "sexiest" pick at wide receiver, but it's hard to ignore his numbers over the past two seasons. The favorite target of Aaron Rodgers, Jennings finished with career bests in receptions (80) and yards (1,292) in 2008. A consistent and productive option across the board, Jennings is a surefire No. 1 fantasy wideout. He won't last past the third round in most standard and PPR formats.

Kansas City Chiefs
28. Dwayne Bowe
Wide receiver Bowe is the most attractive breakout candidate at wide receiver. He should mature and develop under new coach Todd Haley, who has helped past receivers such as Keyshawn Johnson and Marty Booker have huge seasons. The top option in what will be a pass-laden Chiefs offense after the trade of TE Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons, Bowe should now be seen as a very viable No. 1 fantasy wide receiver.

New England Patriots
29. Wes Welker
Wide receiver Despite the absence of QB Tom Brady because of injury, Welker quietly finished last season with 111 receptions for 1,165 yards. The smallish wideout will continue to see a prominent role in the Patriots' offense next season, and the return of Brady makes Welker that much more attractive. Welker, who has added value in leagues that reward points for catches, is a borderline No. 1 or 2 fantasy wideout across the board.

Detroit Lions
30. Kevin Smith
Running back Smith should be seen as a potential breakout candidate in 2009. He was a star at the end of his rookie season with nine catches, 329 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in his last three starts. New Lions coach Jim Schwartz will no doubt lean on the run, so Smith should see more than his share of chances, even with Maurice Morris in the mix. Smith will be drafted as a No. 2 fantasy back in most formats.

New Orleans Saints
31. Marques Colston
Wide receiver Colston, the ultimate fantasy sleeper in his rookie season, expects to be 100 percent recovered from knee surgery and fine for the regular-season opener against the Lions. The top wide receiver in the league's most prolific pass attack, Colston should bounce back from an injury-plagued 2008 season and thrive for fantasy leaguers. He's a borderline No. 1 wideout and well worth a third-round selection.

Denver Broncos
32. Brandon Marshall
Wide receiver While he was inconsistent at times last season, Marshall still finished with a career-best 104 receptions last season and was a solid option in PPR formats. The addition of new coach Josh McDaniels in Denver should be a positive, as is news that Marshall will avoid a league-imposed suspension for off-the-field issues, but the trade of QB Jay Cutler hurt the wide receiver's stock a bit. Overall, Marshall should be seen as a borderline No. 1 or 2 fantasy wideout.

New Orleans Saints
33. Pierre Thomas
Running back The Saints released Deuce McAllister this offseason and didn't draft or sign a back to replace him, so it looks like Thomas will be the starter in coach Sean Payton's backfield in 2009. Thomas is an underrated talent who helped countless fantasy owners win a championship last season with stellar performances down the stretch. Despite the presence of Reggie Bush in New Orleans' backfield, Thomas will be a second- or third-round pick in drafts.

Dallas Cowboys
34. Roy E. Williams
Wide receiver Williams was an absolute disaster for fantasy leaguers last season, finishing with career lows in receptions (36), yards (430) and touchdowns (two). With Terrell Owens now out of the mix, however, Williams becomes the top wideout in a Cowboys offense that should put some points on the scoreboard. If he can avoid injuries in 2009, Williams should bounce back and produce around 1,100 yards and seven-plus touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers
35. Ryan Grant
Running back Grant failed to live up to expectations last season, but a return to his 2007 form could be imminent. Grant will have a full training camp for the first time since joining the Packers, and that should help him produce better numbers. Grant also is a featured back, which is rare in this day and age of the backfield committee. Grant could turn into a very nice draft value and is worth a third-round choice in most standard drafts.

Buffalo Bills
36. Terrell Owens
Wide receiver Is it me or will Owens look odd in a Bills uniform? Regardless, his extended age (he'll be 35 to start the 2009 season) and an offense that isn't like the ones he played with as a 49er, Eagle or Cowboy will hurt his value. Owens also needs Trent Edwards to take a few steps forward in his development as an NFL quarterback. Still, Owens is a No. 2 fantasy wideout, even if he doesn't put up huge numbers as in past seasons

Saturday, July 11, 2009

What's with the Knicks?


It's like The New York Knicks are cursed. They just can't seem to get anything to go their way.

First, Ricky Rubio was drafted and then Stephen Curry was taken one spot ahead of the 8Th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. Knicks fans were heartbroken. They wanted Curry so bad, when Jordan Hill was selected they actually booed him out of frustration. To his credit, Jordan Hill took it like a champ. The 6'10" power forward from Arizona handled it well.

Welcome to New York, Jordan. At least you'll be rich!

After the draft, the Knick's General Manager Donnie Walsh turned his attention to the 2009 free agent market which began on July 1st, to see who he could sign to help bolster the roster for 2009 in an attempt to help lure a big free agent like Lebron James to New York in 2010.

o-2. That's the record the New York Knicks now have in recruiting free agent talent now that the July 1st has come and gone. First, the Knicks brought in free agent Jason Kidd. Kidd was once considered the best point guard in all of basketball is now 37 years old and still considered a great basketball player, but he is hardly the player he was in his prime. Kidd was brought in, interviewed, wooed, and offered a $18 million deal. Kidd politely went back to Dallas, where Mark Cuban counter offered with $25 million. "Thanks, but no thanks" was Kidd's decision.

Next, General Manager Donnie Walsh turned his attention to another over the "Hill" veteran small forward in 36 year old Grant Hill. Hill also declined the invitation to play for the Knicks. This was an even bigger snub at New York than Kidd. At least in Kidd we could all say, "ok - we were out bid fair and square." In this case, Hill decided to take less money - $3 million for one year with an option for a second year; as opposed to the Knicks generous offer of one year at $5 million or three years at $10 million.

Ouch!

New york was snubbed by two OLD veteran players, one of which (Hill) is really just a role player. I mean, it's not like Hill is Larry Bird or Willis Reed in his final year!

What should New York do now? It seems like no one wants to play for Head Coach Mike D'Antoni and GM Donnie Walsh and owner James Dolan. Is it the overpriced cost of living in NY? Is it the fear of getting treated like the way Stephon Marbury was treated when he was feuding with Knicks management? Is it the fact that the fan base is completely irrational at times (i.e., booing first round draft pick Jordan Hill because they were disappointed we were not able to draft crowd favorite Stephen Curry)? Is it because owner James Dolan is just plain unlucky? Is it because the Knicks have shunned hiring Patrick Ewing or Mark Jackson?

Whatever the reason is, James Dolan, the owner at the top, needs to do something about it. In my opinion, I believe he should sell the team to a NY businessman who actually CARES more about winning than he does about playing in a rock band . We need a new owner. A Mark Cuban type who eats, sleeps, and drinks Knicks basketball. I applaud the Knicks for finally cutting ties with Isiah Thomas. That was a marriage made in hell. It set the Knicks back many years. I'm glad that Donnie Walsh is trying to shed the pieces of the last regime, but there is more to it than just that. The culture of the Knicks is critically damaged and Walsh MUST find the answer.

I'm no GM, but if I were Walsh, I would realize that every Knick is expendable. The good news is that it seems that there are no takers for David Lee this off season, making it more and more likely that we will be able to retain him at the mid-level exception. The same goes for Nate Robinson. But more importantly, there are bigger issues. McDonalds mascot Eddy Curry - the pine rider from last season has apparently shed 50 pounds, making him an intriguing chip in the free agency market. With Houston's Yao Ming out for the entire 2009-10 season, perhaps Walsh could orchestrate a trade sending Curry and Nate Robinson to Houston for Tracy McGrady? That would free up cap room and get NY the star it was looking for this off season. Sounds too good to be true right? I know, that's the problem with being a Knicks fan -we are so accustomed to disappointment, that we just assume it could never happen. I'm sure there is some reason Houston would not want to take on Curry's contract, but wouldn't it be great if Walsh at least looked into it? At least that way, Knicks fans weren't left in the dark, with nothing to nibble on except his two moves to try to sign two very old veterans at the mid level exception.

This off season, Donnie Walsh has been out shined by every GM in the NBA. The Lakers signed Ron Artest. The Cavs signed Shaquille O'Neill. The Magic traded for Vince Carter and Brandon Bass. The Raptors signed Hedo Turkoglu. The Celtics signed Rasheed Wallace. The Knicks traded Quentin Richardson (garbage time all-star) for Darko Milicic (bust).

If that's the best Donnie can do, New York will be a bad team for another 10 years. The cap space in 2010 will be less because of the dreary economy, meaning teams must trim their payroll. This is more bad news for New York and Donnie Walsh, who was hedging their hopes on landing two superstars from next year's free agent class. Now, with less money to work with, NY may only be able to sign one superstar.

Walsh had better have a plan C, because the free agent pool is almost dried up. Going after Kidd and Hill prompted many of the fans, including this one to say, "Walsh! What are you doing?!" Most of the blog fan comments on the Daily News and New York Post are happy that neither of them signed with New York. I happen to agree with this sentiment. I would rather go with my young core of drafted players, and hope that one or two of them emerge into superstars good enough to lure a Lebron James or Dwayne Wade to NY in 2010. But they alone will not be enough. We need a player with leadership for 2009-10 or a player with "buzz appeal" like Stephen Curry or Ricky Rubio.

As for the free agents in 2010, in my opinion, I would prefer the Wade & Bosh/Nowitski mix. Lebron James has shown signs of being a primadonna (refusing to shake Orlando's hands after their 2009 playoff loss and confiscating tape that surfaced of a college student dunking on him) and egos like that usually do not fare well in a giant market like New York City. But, if he opted to sign with NY in 2010, I sure as heck wouldn't be disappointed either!